A walk in the Pac for Oscar?

posted at boxingcapital.com [link-a walk in the pac]
December 1, 2009

Oscar has experienced it first hand and he himself was a victim of it. A younger, quicker and naturally smaller guy who tried his skills and luck against a naturally bigger opponent in Bernard Hopkins (49-5, 32 KOs) four years ago. Oscar’s skills enabled him to build an early lead until the then undisputed middleweight champion caught him with a big left hook to the solar plexus in round nine and the game was over.

Oscar couldn't breath and he couldn't stand, the boxing golden boy has learned it first hand: a good big guy will always beat a good little guy. That’s the age old saying in boxing. That was the reason why divisions were created. While there were reasons why Archie Moore (185-23, 131 KOs) dared to trade punches off with Rocky Marciano (49-0, 43 KOs) - his was an admirable journey into a higher level of competition from middleweight to heavyweight - the inherent danger in it tells all about the mismatch. Natural heavyweight Joe Frazier (32-4, 27 KOs) had a walk in park when light heavyweight Bob Foster (56-8, 46 KOs) dared to trade left hook with him.

4 inches taller, 6 inches longer and three divisions bigger, the size advantage goes all the way in favour of Oscar "Golden Boy" De La Hoya (39-5, 30 KOs). Add to that the fact that his December 6 opponent, Manny Pacquiao (47-3, 35 KOs), started his pro career at light flyweight while he, on the other hand, has campaigned as high as the middleweight and you'll see the word mismatch written all over it. Everything points to the bout as being a mere walk in the park for Oscar.

Freddie Roach would disagree to that, of course; he has too. The money on the line for the coming fight is just too great to ignore. For anybody who has taken time to campaign that Oscar can no longer pull the trigger will always weave arguments to trump up the mighty chance of his man. While it's hard to see how the Filipino whirlwind could take De La Hoya out and negate the obvious size discrepancy, it is interesting to see there were more people now who acknowledge the validity of Pacquiao's chance for an upset.

Yes, that chance is small, but very real.

While the size factor goes all the way in favour of the Golden Boy, the stamina factor goes Pacman's way. The Filipino knock-out artist is a rare breed of an athlete who fights harder and harder as the rounds go on. Pacquiao is a fierce warrior who throws hard combos after hard combos every round without having to worry about getting tired. Manny’s ferocious aggression is in a class of its own and his ability to carry-out fierce and non-stop offense all throughout the fight is extraordinary.

Oscar, on the other hand, has a history of getting tired during the later rounds of a fight. If Pacman can withstand the early assaults, expect him to get fiercer, stronger and faster during the second half of the fight and for Oscar to start to fade.

One of Pac's best weapons in this fight is Freddie Roach, who has the best comprehension of the strengths and weaknesses of the two warriors set to clash on December 6. Roach’s first hand knowledge of the flaws in De La Hoya’s offense and defense, as discovered up-close when he trained Oscar for his bout against Floyd Mayweather Jr. (39-0, 25) will certainly be a major advantage to Pacquiao. Roach knows what areas need to be covered. He knows when to get in under what kind of punches and when to get out after delivering the punches. De La Hoya's style is an open book to Roach.

Another thing that favours Pacquiao is the speed factor. Pacquiao's ability to carry his speed in his higher weights is supernatural. He seems to be very comfortable in whatever weight he jumps in. While other fighters slow down whenever they jump up a division, Pacquiao is such an anomaly that he gets even more relentless. The way he hammered David Diaz (34-2, 17) into complete submission, employing his vintage, violently overwhelming non-stop punching and fierce aggression, was a testament of how dangerous Pacquiao could be in his new, higher weight. Of course, Roach and Pacquiao know that the welterweight division is not the lightweight division and that it would take tremendous pounding to take De La Hoya down. And that's one area that Roach is going to cover, knowing that De La Hoya has had problems in dealing with fighters who have faster hands and feet than the Golden Boy himself.

While the weight factor favours De La Hoya greatly, the weight division they are set clash in may actually favour Pacquiao. Oscar has never fought as low as 150 lbs in the last seven years. This means he has to shed more body mass, including muscle, to make the weight. If luck is on Pacquaio's side, he'll be facing a weight drained opponent on December 6.

The factors that favour Pacquiao may give him a chance on December 6th. It may be a very small chance, but here is a guy who has built his career on beating heavily favoured opponents.

Of course, it is still hard to see how lightweight Pacquiao would be able to absorb super welterweight blows. At the end, Pacquiao fans may only be able to hope that Roach is right in saying Oscar can no longer pull the trigger.